It was few seasons ago (=few months ago) so I couldn't remember against which formations I've played.

I think form is main factor whose determines game, other factors have some influence but not critical. Counter formation combined with tactics has mostly influence on ball possession. If team is in good form, then with good setup It can do wonders against stronger teams.
But If team isn't in form, nor quallity and special ability neither formation and tactics could help. My friend used 451V and lost yesterday against weaker team which played 442. Apparenlty V is good counter for 442, but bad performance of his DMC costed him defeat.
One of mine teams which is 2nd in league is behind 3* team who plays 53w2, has players in fantastic form and so far in this season has 100% wins and goal difference 50+. That team never changed formation