Against all odds - unattended formation

Hi all,

I have this opponent in my league who only lost 1 match with an unattended, low-average (lvl15 85.8) allround quality team.
With 4 draws and only 1 loss he leads our league.

His default T11 formation with an average 90.6 quality is:

---------------ST(97)--------------
--------------AMC(79)-------------
--------MC(97)------MC(92)---MR(95)
--------------DMC(87)-------------
DL(91)--DC(88)------DC(87)---DR(87)
---------------GK(96)--------------

Somehow he manages to keep winning from everyone. Even I lost the first encounter 0-3, although I had an emergency T11 formation due to red cards and injuries.

I am wondering what the best counterformation would be against a team like this?

My default T11 formation is a 4-4-2 with an average 94.4 quality is:

--------ST(96)-------ST(93)-------
-----------------------------------
ML(95)-MC(92)-------MC(96)-MR(90)
-----------------------------------
DL(90)-DC(100)------DC(92)--DL(96)
---------------GK(98)--------------

Statistically I should be more than able to win a match against him. But his weird formation is making me doubt that.
Maybe I should switch to a 3N-1-3W-1-2 formation when I confront him? This will make me select players with less quality, but maybe confronting him with his own play (most likely through the middle attack mode) makes me the winner.

3N-1-3W-1-2
-------ST------ST------
----------AMC---------
ML--------MC--------MR
----------DMC----------
-----DC---DC---DC------

Or

3N-1-4-1-1
---------- ST-----------
----------AMC---------
ML--MC--------MC--MR
----------DMC----------
-----DC---DC---DC-----

Any thoughts?