If you have a friend to play friendlies against, you can learn a lot by changing things in game, and seeing what happens...
but, if you cannot do this I would at least attend your matches and try starting out with what *you* feel will work against their form as far as order and arrows are concerned and with your favorite form, and if it doesn't seem to be working, switch to 442 as your fall back form.

So long as you don't put them too far from their comfort zone you should be okay with sometimes playing guys out of position (you might even find one or two that like to be in different place). I woudn't do more than one zone though, like don't put a defender as striker or vice versa...