i can't decide and I need good advice.

[HoofDaddy]

I have a must win match for next season promotion. I am currently sitting 7th with 2 points clear of 8th and 9th. 8th place has a walkover opponent and a better goal differential, hence the must win. Earlier in the season I went 4-3-3 defensive middle long vs my next opponent and this was the result.


My squad is slightly improved and i have chosen this formation against him this time around at home.




As you can see, i have next to no usable subs, so hard tackling is out of the picture. Based on his previous match stats, I predict him to be running normal/offensive mentality with long passing and easy/normal tackling, likely forcing counters. What i can't decide is do I go normal/offensive trapping high and short/man-to-manand use my possession advantage and risk tiring out my squad and risking long balls down the flanks or do I go low defensive with mixed middle no trap zonal maybe counter attacking and hope that my wingbacks and dmc can win battles and create good counterattacking possibilities?
I'm seriously torn and I can't decide usually these decisions are quite easy for me. I rarely have to gameplan for opponents using long passing.
I've been training 3 players all season with my parent squad planning on this team being promoted and it's down to the wire. I realize this should be in formations and tactics but people rarely check or contribute on that forum and the game is being played in 11 hours and i could use some suggestions. i hope I've provided enough info.