I don't know if the formation can change anything. I think it's a just a roll of a dice. For example if you have 80% possession then Nordeus gives you 4 dices and the opponent 1 dice. Occationally you roll 4x1 and the opponent 1x5 or 6 and he wins. Same thing with red/yellow cards and injuries. Maybe if your players fitness is good he gets 3 dices and if you roll a 5 or higher he doesn't get injured. Players with bad fitness/morale would then get only 2 dices for example. You can only improve your chances (more dices) but you cannot have 100% certainty that you won't roll the low numbers.