(-.-)' that's toooo long to explain, we see cases like this everyday... for me it's all the same, game programming, game programming and game programming.
Posesion = not win for sure, and the diference of 2 of quality, = nothing.
In my opinion,, +7 of quality, can be the difference, but not +2 that he have so, that's a 50-50 and is a normal result.
It's so strange score first 2 goals, and recive 2 after this?...
And not agree with the idea that you don't have to watch matches, in my case.
Be sure that you are paying your players for victory.