From my experiences in the last seasons it is better to play 4-5-1 V in normal mode without counter. I play these formation as one of my favorites. I dont know the reason for your lost. But i find it very important to give a blue arrow to dmc against ND. The amc is the most important player for ND in my eyes. So this blue arrow is a must. And for me defensive or normal i would ever give red arrow to the am' s .
I dont think only the arrows are the reason. But give it a try in one of your next matches against ND.
In the last month's there are many changes with the game engine. We cant play 4-5-1V so effective with the same orders we used 6 month ago. So i would play counterattacks only with defensive mode. And leave it without with normal mentaly.
And what i see in the last weeks. ND becomes stronger again.
I hope you can understand.
Good luck