Hey buddy!
Based on opponent's formation I would go for ND 4-1-2-1-2 that would exploit the opponent's lack of DMC. Usually between +-5 points in quality I have only clear wins with 2-3+goals difference . The fact you have a DMC would also help neutralise any red arrows on his MC's.
Unfortunately I see you don't have any AMC to play with and unless you can use A. Pirlo who i guess is injured and will play out of position this formation does not suit you. Your best bet would be 4-5-1 V style utilizing your strong wings and trying to play in a way that you would keep lead in shots on target at all times making all necessary changes and having back up plan ready.This means I would start with 4-5-1V but I would keep an eye on stats and be ready to make changes during the match like adding extra ST and change the DMC or AMC instead of DMC or both by taking out another mid.
Strategy-wise you need to win no matter what so It would be smart to take your opponent by surprise and start with Attacking, down both flanks, counter on, rest default and be ready to change that to Heavy Attacking if a goal is not scored by 30th minute by adding heavy tackle and whole pitch press and cancelling counter if that does not produce any results. If at any point your opponent scores auto heavy attacking etc etc. extra striker inside and don't be scared in the last minutes to take out even a DC if necessary and play 3W with DMC blue arrow if you see he has action from the center and you don't want to remove him. If and hopefully games goes as planned and you score first autochange mentality to normal and I wouldn't recommend defensive or heavy with only 1 goal difference. Always keeping eye on stats and making adjustments as necessary..
Good luck!![]()