well, @ Arya Nabaz is an old player of the game (and a member of this forum too) so I suppose that I won't disappoint him saying that only with a LOT of luck and only this will help him to qualify.
I 'm saying to qualify, not to win him in one game.

Yes, the chances are 1% to win with a 3-0 or more.
Formations and tactics it's only a part of the game (and not the most important) anyway.

Let's be realistic