****, I have same problem. Today I had much better team, 60% possession, best counter-formation from the forum, playing home, 4 star striker. And we had 0:0 draw. Only 2 shots on goal from my team but 84% passing! And I was playing attacking and normal and defensive trying to find the solution. Match before that I lost 0:1 in the same circumstances, but that was my fault, on last 5 minutes I changed to over-attacking and my opponent scored.
In the beginning of the season I won couple of games with more than 6 goals, but now for some reason my players do not want to score anymore and afraid to shoot. Kind of strike. Or engine hates me.
I changed my tactics abit but kept the formation the same. Maybe you should try that too as i won my last game 6-0
Arrows, tactics and moral are key factors besides right formation, keep it in mind.
Becuase of injuries I am playing same formation for a while, I am getting good result. Attacking/Ultra red arrow on AMC passing through the middel zonal, own half, P Style Mixed.