I've faced such team, and from my not big expirience, I've managed to win by confusing him during 2nd half.
I played 4-5-1V def, with possesion, 0-0 1st half, he was better from what I've seen during that half.
2nd half, on 50th min, I transformed into 4-1-4-1 since my wingers can play as ML and MR too.
Switched from def to normal with short passes and Attacking bonus. Won 3-1.
Don't know if this counts, since it's just only 1 match, maybe that was luck, don't know.
Both managers were presented, no supporters, he was hosting the match.
Hope this can somehow help you, but in my opinion, I should lose this one, maybe he gave wrong commands ( bonuses ).
You know, it doesn't depend only on you, but on the other side too
Good luck.