A complete and stunning success.
Stage 1, 2 and 3 combined to give me a cup draw of average quality 2 STARS. With a little under 70 tokens saved over the past 3 seasons and some excellent timing, I now have a 5 star first team 3 hours into the new season. With the rest packs saved over 3 seasons, this should become a 6 star first team in a couple of days.
Bar some amazingly bad luck, i should be able to secure the trophy i crave so badly to put an end to my top11 demons.
Interestingly, i am now perhaps the only person in the entire game who knows EXACTLY how the cup draw works.
For those who are curious: it seems my original theory was wrong. Fortunately i took that possibility into account and had taken precautionary measures in order to ensure success. I can safely say that stage 3 was the key, a little stroke of genius if i may say so myself.