I can't make changes to my formation and tactics 10 min. before kickoff. As you can see my post, there was no time even to return formation menu because of second match time.
My league rival is 2th in the league, and he watches every matches and he was eleminated in CL match. That was an away match with his team. He defeated me badly in first match at my homeground. Thats all i know about his team.
Yeah you are right, tactics, morale and condition are important. But i think randomisation is the biggest part of match simulation.