Interesting to try and predict how this could evolve and Im sure Nordeus are / have done their homework as well.
As with most businesses, you need to Farm your Installed Base and Add to it through New Customer acquisitions.
The Nature of the IB is to decline - erosion is a fact of life and companies need to offset this erosion (decline) with one of 3 strategies
1. Acquisition Rate higher than Erosion Rate. 2. Retention: Keep your major customers happy - slow the rate of decline while acquiring reasonably. 3. OverFarm : Increase Revenues from IB while it declines (Reducing acquisition rate and Increasing Erosion)
Looking at this Game, Id suggest there were 4 categories of Managers.
Heavy Token Buyers - yeah - weve all seen them. These are the premium customers and need to be protected. The NTM does not really make much of a difference to them as they usually start at 6* buys and PT to higher levels. If anything, the NTM now treats them better as other managers can not (will not) compete - so we already get 2 classes of Teams - Lets call this one the 6* Club
Then there are the "Casual" Tokeners - who buy every now and then - just to maintain a decent competitive team. This group would also include the T-Farmers (where available). Usually buy the odd scouts but largely young 4* (for PT) or 5* off the market. The NTM impacts this group the most - especially on the selling side and I feel that Nordeus is trading (Read: Risking) off a percentage of this part of their IB in order to keep the 6* Club Happy. ...High Volume-Low Spend VS Low Volume-High Spend.
Then of course there are the Part-Timers. This would be the existing managers who are quite happy to run 3* / 4* teams and let them decline into oblivion. All Noobs would initially start off like this but then come through / evolve as the 6* Club or 5* Club future. Of course with the Casuals having a rough ride, Nordeus apparent strategy would be that of the New Managers joining, they would prefer to retain only those who would move straight to the highest level.
I think in about 6 - 12 seasons from now - there would be 2 distinct classes of teams - the "6*+" and the "3*-4*".... basically an evolution of this game into a sort of "Premium - Pay to Play" & "Regular - Free to Play" division.