He's almost certainly playing on the counter and as you say through the middle, he may be playing with either Defensive or Normal mentality, I'd put my money on Normal as he is strong through the centre and with DL/DR pushed forward he's not easy to get at down the flanks without AMR/AML.
Counter that with your orders and leave the rest to the game engine.
Depending on quality between your best DC and his Striker, your best DMC against his AMC you could go.
-----DC--DC--DC
---------DMC
MR-------MC-------ML
---AMC------AMC
----------ST
If you have the upper hand over his ST&AMC open the back three up to add some weight to flank attacks.