80-20% possession penalty for fielding an illegal formation
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And IMO the penalty doesnt negate the fact that every single ball slightly leftish could be a goal for you, so yes, perhaps you still could win or draw. In football terms it doesn't make sense getting a result like that, but in here, statistically you have a huge advantage in over 50% of the pitch. Sometimes the 20-80% penalty isn't enough to negate that I guess.