Troll Results-the facts.

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08-16-2014
russ2000_uk

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Troll Results-the facts.

Having seen a great many posts about 'troll' results on here, I'm posting some of the data I've complied over the past ten seasons.

I believe it took me about 6 seasons to get a good grasp of how the game worked, the importance of condition, morale, stadium upgrades, counter-formations, etc, etc. I have ignored any results where my tactics may not have been right.

Therefore, the definition of a 'troll' result is any defeat/draw where the tactics are previously proven to be correct and the condition/morale of players is above 90%. There should also be a quality differential of at least equal to the level...so, at level 6, the Q difference was 6 and at level 16, it is 16. This is squad, not first team.

The Cup data is slightly different, as it can be skewed by 'cup specialists' and the fact people are matched with teams of similar Q. Therefore, after season 9, I changed the parameters to any team where I had more than 5 more stars in the starting line-up than the opposition for them to be regarded as a 'weaker' team. Otherwise, I would have not had any data for this competition.

I have also included any matches where there are 3, or more, of what I would call 'unfortunate incidents'...namely a red card, injury or missed penalty, which were then lost as, potentially, a result of these incidents. However, it should be noted that these are quite rare, as I noted a large amount of matches where the disadvantaged team actually emerged victorious.

I'm putting these up now as, quite frankly, I can't be bothered to collate it any longer. As it stands for season 16, I'm several points clear in the league, 5-0 up in the QF of the CL and out of the Cup. I'm quietly hopeful of a league/CL double, but this data is a week shy of a full season.

Attachment 27668

Attachment 27669

It's quite clear, from this data, that we should expect c.10% so-called 'troll' results. The average is actually 11.13%. What is interesting to note is that the rates were lower in the less successful seasons. Therefore, if you're getting a few 'trolls' be pleased because it means you're doing well! :)

Hope people find this useful.
08-16-2014
Brian Dang

Quote:

Originally Posted by russ2000_uk

Having seen a great many posts about 'troll' results on here, I'm posting some of the data I've complied over the past ten seasons.

It's quite clear, from this data, that we should expect c.10% so-called 'troll' results. The average is actually 11.13%. What is interesting to note is that the rates were lower in the less successful seasons. Therefore, if you're getting a few 'trolls' be pleased because it means you're doing well! :)

Hope people find this useful.

Sometimes, u know, like level 6..I had 5/6 matches losing straight with all the weak teams when just starting of the season but at the end of that season I almost got treble...However, sometimes the Troll resulst unfortunately cost us the quarter final CUP match like in level 7 for my Winning 11 team...I led 2-0 till min 60th and possessed the match but from nowhere, I had straight red card n even 1 injury...then end of the day I lost 3-2...
or in this level 10, league day 19, as the match today...I am being forced to Draw in a match that no way I could draw...1st leg at his home I beat him nicely 4-0 same formation, same tactics even the team at that times a lot weaker coz as u know in early of the season the players were not enough train yet.. but same thing happened, I led 2-0 and from no where I got red card again and from mins 76th he scored twice.. and I got a draw...3 matches continuously I only lost n draw, My lead in league narrow down from 12 points to the 2nd now only 6points...That's obviously Troll but I could not explain that...Same goes to my Tuan DM FC or Winning Eleven teams...
08-16-2014
russ2000_uk

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Dang

Sometimes, u know, like level 6..I had 5/6 matches losing straight with all the weak teams when just starting of the season but at the end of that season I almost got treble...However, sometimes the Troll resulst unfortunately cost us the quarter final CUP match like in level 7 for my Winning 11 team...I led 2-0 till min 60th and possessed the match but from nowhere, I had straight red card n even 1 injury...then end of the day I lost 3-2...
or in this level 10, league day 19, as the match today...I am being forced to Draw in a match that no way I could draw...1st leg at his home I beat him nicely 4-0 same formation, same tactics even the team at that times a lot weaker coz as u know in early of the season the players were not enough train yet.. but same thing happened, I led 2-0 and from no where I got red card again and from mins 76th he scored twice.. and I got a draw...3 matches continuously I only lost n draw, My lead in league narrow down from 12 points to the 2nd now only 6points...That's obviously Troll but I could not explain that...Same goes to my Tuan DM FC or Winning Eleven teams...

Afraid the data doesn't include some kind of co-efficient to weigh the importance of the match. 2 of these (that I can remember) were CL finals, which, you might argue, is a more significant 'troll' than a non-descript league match.

This is merely to garner some quantitative data to indicate the likelihood of a seemingly improbable result. I didn't include data where I handed the 'troll' result out, but there have been many where it has worked in my favour. I would think it's about the same...
08-16-2014
spornybol

i`m the biggest troll in my league thanks to Nordeus after being promoted from level 19 into a level 21 league where the other 13 team are all level 21 and at least 6/7+ Quality better than myself and after beating 2nd today, I now stand at won 6 - drew 6 - lost 7
08-16-2014
Alexzz11

Quote:

Originally Posted by spornybol

i`m the biggest troll in my league thanks to Nordeus after being promoted from level 19 into a level 21 league where the other 13 team are all level 21 and at least 6/7+ Quality better than myself and after beating 2nd today, I now stand at won 6 - drew 6 - lost 7

Do you have a 21 level market?
08-16-2014
Philip L. Willis

Quote:

Originally Posted by spornybol

i`m the biggest troll in my league thanks to Nordeus after being promoted from level 19 into a level 21 league where the other 13 team are all level 21 and at least 6/7+ Quality better than myself and after beating 2nd today, I now stand at won 6 - drew 6 - lost 7

Sorry that is not trolling, what you are doing is called good management.
08-16-2014
spornybol

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alexzz11

Do you have a 21 level market?

no i have level 20 market but level 21 scout list and i REFUSE too spend 50 tokens on one player

edit; bumped up thread that i wrote about being level 20 in level 21 league called, Although still annoyed BUT
08-17-2014
russ2000_uk

Quote:

Originally Posted by spornybol

no i have level 20 market but level 21 scout list and i REFUSE too spend 50 tokens on one player

edit; bumped up thread that i wrote about being level 20 in level 21 league called, Although still annoyed BUT

How often did you beat teams with 20Q higher than you this season, may I ask? The problem with my data is that I'm always the stronger team, but I wonder if it might be different if I was the weaker team?