I am 90% sure this is ratings based as the first response alluded to. I have far fewer injuries than many people on here to date but then I play teams at or above my quality level MAYBE 1-2x per season. If I go far in the cup this season maybe I will get more tough opp than usual although I improve my avg rating by about 1* from the time the draw is made until the first week is over so the cup is all about surviving the first two rounds for me.