Generally speaking, I do agree with you're points.
It's just, I have suffered some bizarre trends the past few seasons that causes me to wonder if Nordeus does program the game engine in matter that hurts the odds of the stronger team at various points during the season.
For example: my recent champions league seasons:
1. Level 7, 1st group (5-1-0 16 pts), won CL. 5-1-1 in KO rounds.
2. Level 8, 2nd group (2-3-1 9 pts), lost Final. 6-0-1 in KO rounds.
3. Level 9, 1st group (4-1-1 13 pts), Won CL. 6-0-1 in KO rounds.
4. Level 10, 1st group (5-1-0 16 pts), Won CL. 5-2-0 in KO rounds.
5. Level 11, 2nd group (3-1-1 10 pts), Won CL. 7-0-0 in KO rounds
* in final game of group stages, I tried for black cat achievement
6. Level 12, 2nd group (5-0-1 15 pts), Currently tied 1:1 in CL semi's. 4-1-0 in KO rounds.
For comparative purposes, 22-7-4 in the group stages and 31-4-3 in KO rounds. What can cause a team to play so much better in KO rounds?
Win bonus = Max all matches
Condition = Max all matches
Morale = Max most KO round matches/Maxed if I feel I need points (otherwise Superb for all) in group stages.
There is also the injury thing, where I've taken 4X as many as my opponent during matches, yet usually have the stronger team. I'd think when mixing in the inactive/semi-active teams they'd take more injuries than me due to not managing their team increase the injury risk.