I've researched my last few games and it seems that if your player ratings remain quite low in the first 25 minutes, you're probably not going to win.
I battered the opposition today who was much weaker, but lost 2-0. My players couldn't hit a barn door. Ratings at 90 minutes around 6/7, but were 5/6 after 25 minutes. Previous games against equal or stronger teams, player ratings around 7/8 after 25 minutes, I win the game with final ratings 8/9.
Comments welcome.
FC Loella. Server 121. Level 26
14 League Titles
3 Champions Leagues
1 Cup