Yes, I have won many trophies, but I hope that your theory is not true.
Cup draws are a problem because you find people of a higher level, tanking or not, This is a first disadvantage. Also in Champions.
In league I have a draw and a lost at home with weaker team (10%-20%) with manager absent and possession bonus 15%; I can understand difficulty regarding big matches, but it seems that matches with weaker team, after the update, is more problematic.
This is my worst start season, so I think it's due to the new realese.