After some awful unexplainable draws and loses against weaker teams (all the details in my first post), now things changed and I definitely realize something is not good with the algorithms....
Now it seemed that luck turned back, and I passed to the semifinals in champions, had a very tough match against the first place in the league (10 points stronger than me) and also won 1-0, playing "catenaccio". For those games I trained really hard, putting all the morale at maximum. But things became weird again.
Today I had another important league match against the second place in the league. Previously, I had the association finals against a weaker team, so I put all the bench to play except my best player, and because I didn't wan't to spend morale boosters, there were like 5 players in low morale. I also didn't care for formation and left it just like that. After the association's finals (which we won), I couldn't connect and didn't prepare my team for the league match, and left my bench team with low morale vs the second place. My bench team was 80, the second place 95. The other manager attended the match, got +15 possesion. The statistics were totally for him. 65-35 possesion, 17-8 shots, 5-2 shots on target. My dmc got a red card since minute 49, and I can't explain how, but I won 1-0, when I should have lost 3-0. This time the engine said "i don't care statistics, training, morale, red cards, possesion, attendance, no matter what happens, YOU'LL WIN" (just the same as the engine can doom you with unexplainable draws or lost). This game is NOT a simulation, it has become a LUCK GAME!!!