It's a toss up, usually butterfly beats that formation, I've been beating up on it all season long including better skilled teams, your mistake was to change your formation, you should have only changed orders to hard attacking with mixed short passing, I lost today in the Cup away 2-1 against same formation, lead all game long in every stat but just was unlucky he scored 2x on 4 shots vs my 1 goal on 14 shots, sometimes like in real life your team just can't score no matter how many more shots you take, happens.