Hi all there. This is my first post as a relatively newbie level 4 manager, so please not to be too harsh.

Over the 4 seasons, I only lost 1 single match early in the first season and that was when I was building the team without good subs yet. Until now, there has been a perfect run on all trophies (4 FA Cups, 2 CL & 2 Super Cups [in final this season] and 3 Leagues [current season leading with 14 points with 2 matches left, so practically 4 Leagues]).

More importantly, I have been on an ongoing run of 174 unbeaten streak in matches across all competitions in 4 seasons and had a winning streak of 53 matches and a couple of 40+ matches, so can be confident in providing my 2 cents on the so-called trolled games.

Important points on quality (that I believe) before illustrating further:

1. Quality advantage of 10% or less is insignificant (unless the better team has the difference in advantage purely because of having a far superior ST or AM [>1.5 stars over opponent’s best defender, hence a lot more likely to score in dead-ball situations]);

2. Quality advantage of 10%+ to 20% could provide an edge, but still could easily lose against opponents with perfect counter formation and tactics (will illustrate further below);

3. Being the favourite, with advantage of 20%+, means one should win comfortably in around 7 to 8 out of 10 times. Opponents with nearly perfect tactics may still get a draw with a ‘very good roll of dice’ and could even win with a huge slice of luck (such as better team having a player sent off, better team couldn’t hit a barn door, etc);

On quality, mentality-wise, it may be best not to overestimate our advantage when it is only within 20%. It is easily understandable that with a 10% advantage that we may subconsciously go for a more attacking formation when we feel we should get a win, and indeed this is the most dangerous setup if our opponent plays a perfect counter formation and tactics. If our active opponent is at home and putting the bonus onto defence, then we could end up having a minimal advantage in attack with a DISADVANTAGE in possession (with attack bonus), or with a minimal advantage in possession and NO ADVANTAGE in attack (with possession bonus), and the likely consequences is we would lose the game if the opponent striker or AM is taking their scoring chances.

Correct tactics on paper also does not necessarily translate to an automatic win (eg. 3-3-2-2 attacking flanks vs 4-1-2N-1-2 should be right most of the time, but then sometimes their back 4 could be blocking all the shots - say half time still not scoring then you may have to try different ways, such as switching from 3-3-2-2 to 3-2-4-1 attacking from the middle to try outnumbering the AMC area to score).

Timing of change is VERY important when you sense a trolled game is on the way (20%+ advantage with right tactics and players having good ratings but not scoring till half time or even losing to the odd goals). I watched many games of other managers, and most are waiting at least until after 70th minute before making any changes in possible troll game situations. Some may even only change after the 80th.

It is all very well not to make unnecessary changes against an equal or stronger opponent while holding onto a desired scoreline (ie. Don’t fix if it ain’t broken), but to leave ourselves with only 1 possible change of formation and substitutions with such only some 20 minutes to force a goal or more to win EVERY TIME in such scenarios is kind of ridiculous to expect things to favour our team all the time.

In short, if things evidently aren’t going our way, it may be worthwhile to try making 1 attacking substitution to change formation at half time until around the 65th-minute mark. At least you give yourself a possible extra bite of cherry (eg. That change of formation somehow works and scores; that sub is in top form and scores despite the formation change not making any difference, that sub attracts unexpected extra fouls and your top player scores or assist in those deadball situation, etc); even if nothing happens, you still have 2 subs to change into a 3rd formation and remove the under-performers to have another go.

From own observations, possible troll games come around every 10 games, and so it comes around 2 to 3 times a season. The key is to stay calm, try making a sensible change early and do NOT go for something like an all-attack 3-1MC-2-4 in the last 10 minutes and hope for miracles after miracles (An experienced opponent will just play a 5-1-3-1 or 4-2DM-3-1 then a counter goal will kill the game off). I did fail to win a few troll games and could only draw while trailing despite making all the right changes on paper, but then it’s kind of reflecting the reality that in the odd matches all the players could be forgetting their shooting boots and/or opponents are having their ‘match of their life’.