For those who keep complaining about draws, please do some simple maths.
What’s the odds of being drawn as the heavy favourite? 1/10. Yes, so you probably could win it as a favourite in 1 out of the 10 times, so probably it is expected that the other 9 times we would be the underdogs. In a draw of 1:9, we count ourselves extremely lucky to get that favourite spot, and accept that 9/10 times we are the ‘ordinary’ ones without such luck.
In average, there would be 1 favourite team (at least 15%+ better of 2nd tier teams), followed by 2-3 teams of 2nd tier, then some more of 20% worse as bottom tier. Drawn as 2nd tier has a real chance of winning though.
Bottom tier has no chance whatsoever, so about 50%-60% chance we won’t get anything.
It is when we are drawn as 2nd tier (15-20% worse than heavy favourite) where we get to utilise all we have learned and the squad we have trained to overturn the odds. The chance of beating a 15-20% team with a perfect counter (opponent cannot change in-game, so our tactical knowledge can be executed perfectly) is about 35-40%. Assuming we beat all the other 8 teams without issues (this is more about tactical knowhow to switch formation for different opponents, which carries the same logic in beating those set opponents in tour event stages), it is more about how we go about that 3 last minute matches to win 2 of 3 instead of 1 of 3.
Luck will play a huge part when we get everything else spot on.
My 123% main level-4 team ends up winning the top prize with all 3 last-minute wins in 3 matchdays against 2nd, who is a 138% tanker.
(It shows that tankers cannot always win as favourite - we just need to train up a versatile team to handle each)
1 of 3 new level-1 87% team also won the top prize. Both these teams get all the max 27 trophies with free challenges only as well.
Just a shame that neither got any better than the basic 7* ST. Main account as sub for 1 season; Level-1 account could be used for 3.
Main level-4
New level-1
Tankers can keep tanking (to keep your greys high). My quad winning teams will sweep all 51 motms every season while pushing all players’ greys towards 0% with promotions. See who has the last say.