There are many factors influencing a match, and to create unique scenarios, the game select few factors to be determinant ina particular scenario, so somehow the win bonus, can matter, or not, attend can matter, or not, have 0% condition can matter, nor not... all is about to be able to read the scenario arround the minute 20 to control the game, and the first you need to do, is pay attention to the possession bar, then the report give you some info about the scenario you are facing, starting for the effectivity % given to both teams, and as last info that needs attention, you have the ratingsm that are submited to variations from one match to another to create different scenarios, with different key players resolving the scenario/match animations for good or bad.