Dont match him, switch to a 3w-1-4-2 or 4-1-3w-2, he is only playing one upfront and relying on keeping it tight at the back by playing five players!, you should look to exploit this playing more aggressively, personaly I would start with DL .DC,DR,DMC.ML.MC.MC.MR,ST,ST, and really try to get his team on the back foot, his lone striker will be isolated so if you set your orderes to attacking, mixed focus passing, close down own half, hard tackling as you want to dominate possession and keep most of the ball!, mixed passing, zonal marking, play offsides, DONT force counter attacks, you can switch this on if things are not going well!, you should be fine as both teams as you said are evenly matched!, your strengths being DMC,MC ST is perfect for your arrow set up, REDS on the DMC,all midfield and STs, you are going for it and I think will do well!. If you find by half time your down or drawing, then take of the DMC and go -3-4-3 by putting another ST on!, or take of a MC and play 3-1-3-3, the most important thing is to pepper his goal and with 3 STs on you will deffinatley get chances.