well Toxcatl as I said before in other threads, formation is the 4th important factor for me (luck, quality of the players and presence of the manager are the 3 major).
If you add maybe 7-8, the minors, it's not easy to have a solid conclusion

Two games in the cup vs an opponent from +1 lv.
The quality of the players was about the same.
He has 4-4-1-1 which is very similar with 4-2-3-1 (it's the difference of ML-AML & MR-AMR)
In 1st leg I played with 4-5-1 V and won rather easy.
Oppo manager wasn't there
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In 2nd leg, oppo man. was there.
I used 2 DMC instead 2 DC.
Still had the control, more shots, bad rates from oppo players, he scored last min. with a penalty (the Luck factor )
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so
second DC helps more than second DMC. I mean, formations with three defenders (3w especially) are weaker in defence than formations with 4 defenders, but they give more posession.
I didn't see that