Well, there are a lot more experienced players than me, but here's my opinion anyway:
You need 4 players at the back, no DMC, no AMC and your chance of winning would be through midfield domination, because he's weak there (only has a MC and DMC). So my guesses would be 4-5-1 flat, 4-3(N)-2(W)-1, 3(N)-2(DMR,DML)-3(N)-2, or something more hardcore, like the classic 4-3-3. It all depends on the players you'have and your personal preferences.
Still, I'm new. I may be wrong. Better wait for some of the veterans. GL!