ah quite varied then! Im level 8, started out buying tokens from level 1-4 (was only 80 tokens a season) and since then ive not bought any. Maybe I never spent enough to become a target (if your theories are correct) but I haven't noticed any change in markets or injuries.

However from reading the forum ive noticed that injuries and tl seem to vary a lot. I get maybe 3-5 injuries a season and others seem to get double that. My tl is pretty poor with mostly 3* players when others seem to find top end 5*