i play ND for 3 seasons and i must say that i scare the most are 4411, 4312, 41311, the other formation i don't thinks they can counter ND.
but otherwise, this game like every game have a random facteur and you need to keep your formation till to the end to see if it is a true counter formation or not. sometime they come back from the end 3-5 goals. if you change your formation during the game, we couldn't say anything