I don't believe you are seeing the full picture - just because a team is not a member of the 5 or 6 teams that are usually in the top places doesn't mean that others, if they improve, can't get there also. Crystal Palace, for one, have been top 4 finishers on a previous occasion. Look at the results from the last 7-8 months and say they don't deserve to be there...
Any formation or tactics advice given is based purely on experience with my teams...