You must have players that can perform good with the formation you choose.
Without the right stuff, F&T cannot bring the victories.
I use 4-5-1V, def./counters/flanks.
Almost all the seasons it worked for me but from time to time I change it (not using it in all games).
Offside and passing are almost invisible for me.
I use offside sometimes just as another emergency button.
When oppo playing without DM, I try to play with long pass. But not sure how much % it helps.
I don't use red arrows in my defenders. Blue arrows for my DC and for DR-DL too, if oppo has AMR-AML.
4-4-2 it's also a good formation but lately with the STs problem, I don't use two ST. One of them playing always bad (rate of 7 and nothing more).
After playing for many seasons (and watching the games of course), a manager also gain and using his instinct.
He can understand for example if the roll dice of the game doesn't favor him, when he 'll concede a goal, if one of his player is gonna be suspended or injured and some other little things.