he may have had a down arrow on his ML, also 3n412 is an offensive formation that works best at home with possession bonus. i acknowledge that this game has many variables,it's not as simple as no dml no win as there are many factors to consider. His squad could have had a multi-match day and been tired, his opponent could have been at home, his opponent could have used a max win bonus, his opponent could have been on a good run of form, etc. none of which I can tell for sure by your posts, without hard information that good managers use to make inferences with, you force us to speculate and simplify our advice then you ask for clarity without providing us with more info much of the time making this whole experience increasingly frustrating.
I don't care about your individual results, i care that you think about all the variables that go into it. You have isolated that his AMR is a threat and instead of making a choice yourself, you throw it to us to answer it for you. Manage your own team, nobody has access to the information you do, you may win you may lose, but at least you will have done it on your own and will have no one to thank but yourself. I'm done taking your advice fishing seriously. Life has no wiki and neither does football. If there was it would be different for everybody.