Nico and others believe FA and/or friendlies don't calculate the same way as other competitions; I haven't heard this mentioned specifically. You could track matches in other competitions and eventually derive the relevant formulae for red card after effects, this would be both valuable and impressive. I would be interested and relatively humbled; I would also trust what you're saying at that point.

Some differences between association & friendly vs. other competitions might be explained as simply as many teams probably offer a lower win bonus in those competitions. Similarly, condition is probably least cared for in those competitions.