Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 14

Thread: Handicap for home teams?

  1. #1
    Dreamer jcohen42's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Philadelphia, USA
    Posts
    352

    Handicap for home teams?

    I've started to notice over the past couple seasons or so that away teams are doing better than expected. In football, home teams are supposed to have the advantage, and it is supposed to be harder to win on the road, but I suspect that there is some kind of handicap in place to make away teams more competitive.

    Consider:
    • In my league, of the 19 games that have been played thus far, the Home team has a record of 7-3-9
    • In my champions league, of the 21 games that have been played, the Home team has a record of 8-4-9
    • In the corresponding Nivea league, of the 46 games that have been played, the Home team has a record of 22-8-26
    • In my cup, of the 80 games that have been played thus far, the Home team has a record of 35-12-33
    • Totaling all of the above games (176 total games), the Home team has a record of 72-27-77


    Also, In my own games, of the 7 games I have played, the Home team has a record of 0-1-6. (!)

    Of course, my own games are a very small sample size, but the fact that only Cup give the Home team more wins, and only 2 more wins at that, worries me. The Nivea league results are especially telling, I think, since we are at the point where teams are starting to play each other twice, and the fact that the Away teams have a 4-win advantage just seems unrealistic. I feel like there has to be something going on within the system to give Away teams more of an advantage than they used to have.

    Has anyone else noticed this in their competitions? I'd be interested to see what everyone else's records are. I also may track this throughout the season to see if it evens out.
    Last edited by jcohen42; 01-12-2017 at 02:36 PM. Reason: Added record for total games
    DRAGONS SC

    THE PERMANENT END

  2. #2
    Greek Forum Moderator nikolgiorgos's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Posts
    16,768
    home team meaning a +5% in b.p. from tickets, nothing more.
    Well, that's not big deal.
    You 're lv38, so i suppose that many of those teams, have loyal (or not so) supporters.
    2-3 of them supporting the away team, eliminate this handicap.
    Καλώς ήρθατε στο Ελληνικό φόρουμ
    http://forum.topeleven.com/%CE%93%CE...%B4%CE%B1.html

  3. #3
    Dreamer Barry Brinkhuijsen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Location
    Lelystad, The Netherlands
    Posts
    343
    But one thing is true. In assocation match my FA does better in away matches as in home matches. If I am not mistaken it was only one time the other way around
    WZAWZDB!

  4. #4
    Famous nash123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Posts
    1,046
    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Brinkhuijsen View Post
    But one thing is true. In assocation match my FA does better in away matches as in home matches. If I am not mistaken it was only one time the other way around
    Totally agree...
    f.e. last season I won 9:0 away, played only 1:1 at home. I made a draw vs 40% stronger team away, lost at home 0:5...

    Nasharak FC - Club Museum
    updates every new season
    I don't buy token.
    I don't manipulate the draw.

    retired

    League: 26x
    Champions League: 24x
    Cup: 20x

    Triple: 18x

    FA (Platinum)
    stats worthless because of
    exploiting and bug-weekend




  5. #5
    VIP talisman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Clevedon, UK
    Posts
    3,600
    OP might have something there - in Desert Rats' Level 6 League, 21 matches played - 5 Home wins, 12 Away wins, 4 Draws.
    Any formation or tactics advice given is based purely on experience with my teams...


  6. #6
    Dreamer jcohen42's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Philadelphia, USA
    Posts
    352
    Quote Originally Posted by nikolgiorgos View Post
    home team meaning a +5% in b.p. from tickets, nothing more.
    Well, that's not big deal.
    You 're lv38, so i suppose that many of those teams, have loyal (or not so) supporters.
    2-3 of them supporting the away team, eliminate this handicap.
    Perhaps, but wouldn't the home teams also have loyal supporters, pushing the bonus in the home team's favor? Over a sample size of 100+ games, I'm not sure players watching games has a big effect (although, there are times when I feel my team does better when I am not watching; that's a study for another time, haha)

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Brinkhuijsen View Post
    But one thing is true. In assocation match my FA does better in away matches as in home matches. If I am not mistaken it was only one time the other way around
    This is what got my eye on the pattern in the first place. I am definitely going to monitor our Association games this weekend as well. Last weekend, of the 48 total matches, the home teams won 19, drew 15, lost 14. Not too bad, but wins and losses are still close.

    By comparison, in the Premier League right now, the home team has a record of 97-45-58. The home team wins almost twice as many games as they lose! Just food for thought.
    DRAGONS SC

    THE PERMANENT END

  7. #7
    Pro axd23's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Posts
    849
    I think that my team is performing better away. OP is correct.
    Manager of Παναθηναϊκός Α.Ο (Panathinaikos A.O) currently playing at level 18.


  8. #8
    Famous HairDryer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2015
    Posts
    1,706
    yup mine too score more goal away then home.

  9. #9
    Dreamer jcohen42's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Philadelphia, USA
    Posts
    352
    Here's an update for how the home teams are doing in my competitions:

    • League: 15-15-26 (8 full rounds)
    • C. League: 26-13-25 (4 full rounds)
    • N. League: 38-16-42 (6 full rounds)
    • Cup: 50-20-42 (through QF)
    • Assoc.: 13-16-19 (one week; I did not count last week's as it was in last season's competitions)

    With a total record of 142-80-154.

    It appears to me that Nordeus is trying to give home teams and away teams a roughly equal chance of winning any given match; however, this is not realistic, as in real football the home team has a distinct advantage. I don't even see that much of a possession boost at home; in my most recent Cup round, I had the same possession in both my home and away legs, even though I had a full stadium at home and my opponent had a full stadium at his home. I was the only manager who watched either match.

    I'm going to still collect data to see if the trend continues. It is said that a sample of 1000 cases is enough to declare statistical significance; we're about 1/3 of the way there, so a full season should theoretically be close.
    DRAGONS SC

    THE PERMANENT END

  10. #10
    Famous HoofDaddy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Posts
    1,389
    People that play low defensive formations with counter attacks on at home should be at greater risk of losing.
    Renamed to Bolton Wanderers Season 27.
    League Winners: 3,5,8,16,21,24,26,30,31,40
    Cup Winners: Seasons 10,25,28,35,40
    CL Winners: Seasons 19,23.37,
    Nivea winners; Season 30,41
    The Hoof is the Proof.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast