It seems you may be right. The difference between 105 and 125 is exactly 20% so it is quite possible that the game simply considered his quality on his level. The question now is why it happens and if this affects the match itself
Also need to agree with this according to my experience. I always easily win 3-4 trebles in a row winning easily even against much better opponents but after that for some 4-5 seasons my players suddenly play like crap losing to the last places of the league, etc.
As for the trolling and randomness of the game - the end of the previous season was crazy in troll results. In my first 3 weeks my players were playing in god mode and I had only 1 defeat in the second day of the season in my 2 cup match. The 1st away match I easily won 0-4 and in home game was lucky to escape the problems during last minutes of the game scoring the goal 1-4. This was the definite trolling as the difference between the teams was great but in the 2nd game I couldn't do anything playing just with the same tactics. That was my only defeat in 3 first weeks.
The pick of the troll results was during the last week when I lost 4 matches and got 3 draws out of 10 matches playing with the last teams of the league. And if previously the number of such results during the season was 2 max 3 during the last 2-3 seasons the number of such matches increased to 8-10 each season.
Just hope for some changes in TE2019 (if it certainly comes which I really doubt recently). But 6 years experience of the game tells that all the updates bring only new problems


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