Unfortunately everything that you have said there rings true. Especially the bit where your player ratings are below 6 and your best player is having a stinker. This is where you have to try and manipulate the game code to swing things back but usually in vain. More often than not, the stronger team is destined to win especially if they have a record of comebacks or the Manager is absent. Indeed, it has happened to me but as a positive. I was top all season and 2-0 and 3-1 down against a mid-table opponent but my best player was on something like 8.6 rating and as I began the comeback, it increased. I won 5-3 and he got a 10. Those ratings are a good indicator of whether you are destined to win or not.