Why don't you try to read the scenario? the shoot efficency is a key factor, you can read this since the very beginning of the matches and know if favours one team.
You have a dominance power problem related in your squad, try to understand this and read the games as the engine would do, because all this is about powers assigned, lists and variables.
The engine creates scenarios using some of the avaliable conditionants and the variations in the ratings.
A scenario where the efficency is given to your opponent requires some changes in your formation.
As always the first you need to control is the possession bar, since the game only simulates attacking game, and this gives you the animations once you set the right settings to get the possession control.
The second important factor that you should read in every game, is the one you are showing, the efficency, and the third is the aggressivity in individual players/team and then you can focus on the corners/FKs efficency since a good player there should score around the 50% of chances.
Check my guides that are somewhere in the forum, I already tryied to explain a bit how the engine works to simulate the games, what is the contributive power, and the dominance power that each player have assigned internally as a value. How the engine creates 2 lists, one for attacking animations and another for defensive animations, and how to get the possession bar control which is the most important and many times the unique thing you should do apart from understand the beatability margins.
Try to share in a different post, captures about your squad screen where it shows the last 5 ratings of your whole team. Otherwise, if you don't have the intention to change anything or improve something you will stay here 2 more years exactly at the same point you are now, which is the same point where you where two years ago right now.