Player Talent

[Declan Walker]

Hi, I've seen a lot of people have brought up this discussion

However i would like to put my findings forward.

I have put extensive research - recording skill points gained per player, the drop of value of a player by year (aging) and the drop of skill points gained when entering a new age group.

*/* Just a point - I see a lot of people take Market Value vs Salary into equation when buying a new player to assess their value - However IMO this is nonesene. My reasoning for that is that a players contract only needs to be renewed every 3 seasons. And although it may be directly proportional to a 'talent' value - (i dont think so - I believe it's to player level only) - it is impossible to determine when a players contract was last renewed. Let me give an example -A player signed at level 14 with a salary of 2.3k, he is trained and increased to level 26 in 2 seasons - He is still on a 2.3k salary. However a player with the same-ish value (100k less) was bought this season and is on a salary of 12.6k. So when comparing the 2 players - of the same age.
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Player A is 26 skill, $1.9m in value and on a $2.3k salary
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Player B is 25 skill, $1.8m in value and on a $12.5k salary.
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If you were to use any of the equations of Salary vs Value you would determine player B to be better - and this is not true.

If you have any opposing findings - please share.

My opponion is that player value is the only real way to determine a estimate talent variable.
Now - a players value, takes 3 things into account.

1) Age.
2) Level.
4) Talent.

You can determine 2 of the 3 things when buying a player.
so lets break down each variable.

AGE
A players value will decrease as he gets a year older - (i try keep my squad as young as possible - replacing the oldest player each season). But from what I have found * i think * that a player will drop in value from 1 year to the next MORE if they are MORE Talented - possibly because they a year older from living up to potential rather then someone plodding along. My most talented players dropped 27.83%, 26.54%, 26.13%. As they got a year older - The percentage drop doesnt seem to be age dependant - a 20 yo turning 21 can drop less in value then an 18 yo turning 19.
The average drop of players value for 19 players all of different training speeds is 20.5%. So when buying 2 players of the same level but an age apart - if the younger player is not at the very least worth 20% more then the older then the older is probably more talented.

For example compare 3 players:

Player A
Age:18, Level 32, Value $3.7m

Player B
Age 19, Level 32, Value $3.3m

Player C
Age 20, Level 32, Value $2.7m

Now to determine who will be the most talented (faster trainer).

Player A vs Player B
If hypothetically - Player A did not gain a single skill point for an entire season,
his Value of $3.7m would drop by about 20% so he would then be as a 19 year old like player B -
worth only $2.96m. So despite Player A having a value of $400k more he is not anywhere near as talented as player B.

Player A vs Player C
Again - hypothetically Player A ages 2 years without gaining a skill point -
His value has already dropped from $3.7m to $2.96m with 1 year, turning 20 would drop his value by further to a value of just $2.37m. So despite player A being worth more then $1m more than player C, the later is a more talented player.

So keep that in mind when buying a youngster.

Also keep in mind that players will training gain will reduce by age group
As i said earlier - I try keep my squad as young as possible and this is the reason.
From my previous season to this one - Two 21 year old players averaging 4.29 and 4.14 skill points per day dropped to 1.74 and 1.43 per day respectively. A drop of 60% and 65%. Which is drastic (both players are still first team players this season with no injuries so thats the drop from what I can see which is drastic). I haven't seen the drop from age group 22-24 to the developed phase. But i imagine it's much of the same 60%-65% drop.

So keep that in mind if you were to buy a 22 year old, 32 level, $2.9m player in comparison to player A. Because although he may have been more talented - he has past his development stage and wont increase in level very quickly.

On that note..
Every season your players will drop a star level - so to make sure that they dont get left behind they must gain at the very least 1 stat/5 Levels/75 skill points. So over the 28 day season - in order for your player to keep up with the jump from league to league he needs to gain an average of 2.68 skill points per day. So that is truelly the minimum you should be looking for in a player.

Increase by Level and Star
Players value increase by level - when a player jumps a level they usually gain an average of 10% in value so a $3m that just leveled up will now be worth $3m + ($3m x 10%) = $3.3m. Simiraly a $9m will now be worth $9m + ($9m x 10%) = $9.9m.
Theres is a slight increase in value when the player jumps a star. I see it averages an additional 0.5% to 1% on top of the level jump. Not an overly significant amount.

So when comparing 3 players of the same age but different levels.
Player 1
Age 18, $4.4m, level 39

Player 2
Age 18, $4.55m, Level 40

Player 3
Age 18, $4.3m Level 38.

Player 1 vs Player 2
When player 1 levels up to 40 skill he will gain about 10% + an additional 0.5% in value so will be worth $4.9m so he is more talented then player 2.

Player 1 vs Player 3.
When player 3 levels up to 39 he will also increase value by 10% - so he will now be worth $4.74 so he is more talented then player 1.

Player 2 vs Player 3.
We've already seen player 3 jump to $4.74 in value an additional jump of 10.5% (star up) will see him jump to $5.25m
So despite being worth the least initialy he is the most talented player.

When comparing players of different age and level:

Player A
Age 19, Level 40, Value $4m

Player B
Age 18, Level 42, Value $5.3m

Player C
Age 20, Level 41, Value $4.5m

So compare Player A to Player B.
Start with age. Player B - if he was 19 years old would be worth about 20% less. Therefor he would be of value $4.24m
Now Level - If Player A was 42 he would gain $4m + ($4m X 10%) = $4.4m + ($4.4m x 10%) = $4.84m

So therefore Player A is more talented then Player B. Despite the $1.3m difference in price.

Player A vs Player C
Start with age - Player A would drop by about 20% in value - so he would be worth $3.2m
Now Level - If player A was then 41 Level he would be worth 10% more so - $3.52m
Vs player C worth $4.5m
So clearly Player C is more talented.

Player B vs Player C
Age - If player B was 20 his value would drop - (we've seen it drop to $4.24m at 19) a further 20% would make it $3.39m.
Level - If Player C gained a level to be 42 as well he would gain 10% so would then be worth $4.95m.
So therefor Player C is more talented.

Any Thoughts?

[Qambu Yaasi]

Too long and i dont think anyone will read beyond the first point.

Anyway, no one in the forum ever implied that Market Value vs Salary equation determines the better player. It determines fast trainers/potential. Fast trainers are not guaranteed performers.

Based on your breakdown...

Player A is 26 skill, $1.9m in value and on a $2.3k salary
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Player B is 25 skill, $1.8m in value and on a $12.5k salary.

I would buy Player A because he would train faster, assuming both are < 22 years old.

As a player age, his value does not necessarily drop because his rise in quality.

Also, I think it is unnecessary for you to spend so much time analyzing an FB/mobile game as the game engine is not like FM. It is much simpler and you just need to have fun!

[Skidz]

It was a nice idea to break it down my friend but there are a few key points I would like to touch on!
1. " needs to gain an average of 2.68 skill points per day" , that is just not going to happen!
2. Rather than look so deep into it, it is far quicker to just look for age and value as this is a easier base line for finding quality players!( no guarrantees but alot of the time), if you compare 18/19y olds of the same quality by the price this will give you a prety good idea which is the better player! e.g 18y Q 68 21M & 18y 69 24M I would say the latter is going to be a faster trainer.

[Buffs Mad]

Only thing I'd add is you've not defined 'talent', unless I've missed it.

I'd actually rather see the data than the conclusion, if morale and condition were captured, as I don't know if there is a relationship between them and skill point gain. (And my interest is not enough to do the work. )

[Dman2pt]

I started to do a similar work whend i was on the lower levels, but just give up, all things seems a bit random, it is impossible to get to a fórmula you can apply.


As you i have concludente that fast trainers lose more market value at the beggining of New season that slow trainers. Players above 32 years old do not lose any value, they keep the same.

Whend people say about relation between MV and wage that work for nordgens.

[Declan Walker]

Hi,

I think you misunderstood when i said they needed to gain 2.68 skill points a day (rather i mean 2.68 TP something a player can get in a single match).

With regards to your comparison. I would agree with you that the later player would develop faster. If you look at my simple analogy. Of comparing the 10% price jump per level the first pllayer would be 63.1m at the same level and therefore $900k cheaper. But that's a marginal difference really - of 1.4%. And i would estimate that the second player will only gain 7-8 training points more. (depending on gifts/MotM/ injuries). over a full season.

[Vasilis Mavromatis]

Hello Declan Walker,

your mathematical approach is great.
Three things :

a) I believe that the morale is a factor too in training.
b) I have trained a player on practice match 4 times in a row. As he was getting tired, his training progress was reduced each time. So I believe that his condition plays a role too in your calculations.
c) Having said the above, I believe that the numbers you talk about (20% decrease for 1year and 10% increase for a level) can be sometimes misleading and give you wrong results. Unless you came up with those numbers looking into players progress for many seasons.

Overall, its a very interesting and usefull approach