IMO, that is random, but the major was your strategy doesn't bestest.

I have played Hard Tackles (often or when i want raise up possesion) many times before the strong opponents, even injured them, but I have never been red card, very little yellow card (only one maybe). And i received red card while normal tackles even in home squad too.

For me: good counter formation (30-40% win) / Setting & order (40-50% win) / morale - condition - bonus - fans - home & away squad (10-20% win)