I also had sometimes games like yours.
Trying to understand better the game and what is the role of luck to this , I made this thread
https://forum.topeleven.com/top-elev...op-eleven.html

A part from there

"Wheel of Fortune
It’s also a popular lucky game and here is my theory about top eleven.
In every game there is a WoF which choose the most important factor who will affect one game.
Sometimes it’s the quality but sometimes the WoF ignores the q of the teams.
Sometimes it’s a good formation but in some other games formation doesn’t affect at all.
We can see many games where one team is using the most inappropriate formation but the game calculation still ignores it and don’t penalize it. "

That's what happened here.

As I can see, all the other factors maybe were good (for your opponent I mean).
A descent quality, watching the game, made a sub , maybe using down arrows in his MCs, an extra bonus and what else