Understanding role of Luck in top eleven

[nikolgiorgos]

Luck, roll dice, rng (random number generator), good day/bad day, what ever you call it, this thing it’s one of the major factors which affect the result of the a TE game.
As I said in another thread, those are some other factors.

Major things
- High quality of players, in a good form, with a good "chemistry"
- Presence (and right coaching) of the manager
- Luck/roll dice

Minor things
- Formation
- Individual orders
- arrows
- ball possession
- supporters
- victory bonus
- training bonus
- special abilities
- morale
- condition

But what exactly is luck or other hidden factors and how affect the game ?
Let’s see some examples

The roll dice

It’s very possible that there is a roll dice in the duels between the players.
For example an attacker vs a defender or a GK.
Maybe our ST has much better skills but here comes the roll dice which changing the final numbers of the battle. Of course if our player gets a 1-2 and the opponent gets a 6-6, we ‘re gonna loose and a special ability of our player can’t help much.
This procedure is common from the old times, when people was playing board games. Later it passed also in pc - rpg/dungeons and dragons style games.
I ‘ve played some of them (like Forgotten realms- Baldurs gate or Icewind Dale).
Our hero in this case, has some characteristics which we developing as he level up and as we play, we find more and better weapons and armors but when an attack or defense is coming, the roll dice adds or subtract points.
Of course we don’t know the range of the dices in TE but it seems some times, a team can win or loose from an opponent who has 2* difference.

Wheel of Fortune (WoF)


It’s also a popular lucky game and here is my theory about top eleven.
In every game there is a WoF which choose the most important factor who will affect one game.
Sometimes it’s the quality but sometimes the WoF ignores the q of the teams.
Sometimes it’s a good formation but in some other games formation doesn’t affect at all.
We can see many games where one team is using the most inappropriate formation but the game calculation still ignores it and don’t penalize it.
Some times happened (almost to every one) to play a game with our players having very low condition (this can happen when we had two games in a difference of 3 hours and we couldn’t log in to replenish the condition or to make some subs).
Still the team played good and the players performed as condition had no effect to them. Same thing with some player who had a zero morale but still had excellent performance.


Slot machine


Another popular game of luck. When we have a combination of the symbols. When do we have this lucky factor ?
Don’t know, maybe when a player of a much weaker team, gives an assist to his (also weak) team mate and his scores against our super Goalkeeper ?
Any other ideas ?

Another factor which affect the team or the player’s performance is the waveform.

We cannot have a linear performance forever, everything is moving up and down.
They key, the explanation or the target is to stay as long it’s possible in positive areas (good performance and rates) and pass soon from the negative areas as we can’t do anything to avoid them.

So, every factor, major or minor, affected by the “luck” part of the game, is added in the two sides of a Libra and we have the final
result.

[Tactician]

Generally, a 'roll of the dice' should not be a major contributor for the outcome of a match. If that is not the case, then for sure it is not appropriate. Quality and tactics should be the major contributors. If ever some randomness should be involved, then it should be a minor contributor.

I think that there is more than just a 'roll of the dice' that affects the outcomes in this game. For sure, there are hidden effects in this game. Only those that have programmed this game know exactly what they have put in there. But, many things can be deduced based on a lot of observations.

By the way, Nordeus does not play with dice. Do you think that they will risk a lot of investment by playing dice? Most of the things that occur in this game have been programmed to happen with the business points of view being considered. Many things are clearly defined. Someone from Nordeus spoke of variables, but I am sure many of those variables are clearly defined to make sure that things happen the way the company wants them to happen so that they can benefit financially. The bad or in fact very bad, is that things have gone beyond what is acceptable in some cases. It can be compared to exploitation.

P.S: I have observed a lot of things in this game. Some have occurred way to much and similarly that they are neither coincidences nor did they occur due to randomness. In other words, they have been programmed to happen when certain things have been satisfied.

[Tactician]

I have also spoken on 'luck' in general here: http://forum.topeleven.com/top-eleve...tml#post402367 .

[Medo zalata]

Super good thread
A year ago I was playing a game where there were weapons and you should improve them till lvl 120, surely in higher lvls a weapon will cost you your family lol
Improvement system there was based on percentage of success which goes up and down every half an hour
The point here is that once it was 99% of success so I tried to improve my weapon and it failed twice and I couldn't improve it as I had lost all the money !!!!!
Just imagine 100 cards 99 of them is succeed and 1 is fail and you took that fail card twice

[nikolgiorgos]

Luck must be a part of this game because :
- It's also a part of the real football
- It's a way to make things uncertain or else the higher q team with a good manager would secure the championship (league or CH.L.) every season.

I agree that many times it takes a bigger part than it should be.
I started this thread, mostly to "explore" what form has the "Luck factor" in the game.
You and other members of the forum (like Celtic for example) saying many times that money is the purpose that those results happening.
Of course nordeus isn't a philanthropy foundation, it's an enterprise which without a profit cannot support the game or even this forum anymore.
But in which way you see that the game engine leads the players to spend more money ?
I can see in this forum more people (who spent money), complaining, than people who don't spend.
If you observing, did you noticed any pattern to lead to that conclusion ?

[Medo zalata]

I think this game works like that
Every match you have a percent of winning
Morale, condition, formation, quality, etc... All of these factors contribute to this percent and may raise it to 99%
However 99% may fail twice as I said before

[Medo zalata]

Super good thread
A year ago I was playing a game where there were weapons and you should improve them till lvl 120, surely in higher lvls a weapon will cost you your family lol
Improvement system there was based on percentage of success which goes up and down every half an hour
The point here is that once it was 99% of success so I tried to improve my weapon and it failed twice and I couldn't improve it as I had lost all the money !!!!!
Just imagine 100 cards 99 of them is succeed and 1 is fail and you took that fail card twice

Every time I remember this situation I laugh a lot as I was really amazed

[Tactician]

Luck must be a part of this game because :
- It's also a part of the real football
- It's a way to make things uncertain or else the higher q team with a good manager would secure the championship (league or CH.L.) every season.

I agree that many times it takes a bigger part than it should be.
I started this thread, mostly to "explore" what form has the "Luck factor" in the game.
You and other members of the forum (like Celtic for example) saying many times that money is the purpose that those results happening.
Of course nordeus isn't a philanthropy foundation, it's an enterprise which without a profit cannot support the game or even this forum anymore.
But in which way you see that the game engine leads the players to spend more money ?
I can see in this forum more people (who spent money), complaining, than people who don't spend.
If you observing, did you noticed any pattern to lead to that conclusion ?

This is what I am saying. If if ever randomness is taking a bigger part than it should, then this is wrong.

It is not about the match results when I speak of about the business side. I speak about what happens in this game. Let me speak of one. I had a team in 2015. When I first started to buy tokens for this team, I have noticed some negative things happening. At that time, you can say ok it might be a coincidence. But, when you see the same things or very similar things happening for the other team after having done the same thing (that is the act of buying tokens), the probability of it being a coincidence has been significantly reduced. And when other users confirm the same, it further reduces up to where it can no longer be a coincidence. In other words, it has been programmed to occur. Another explanation to this might be cycles occurring in this game instead. Other than those two, there is nothing much as possible explanations.

I have noticed that too. People who don't spend money buying tokens don't seem to be affected, at least not to such an extent than those that buy tokens. This include the number of injuries occurring. So, there must be some sort of relation.

One example: the game tempts or forces the user to buy tokens or complete offers by putting him into situations like a lot of injuries (mostly occurring close to each other so that there are more chances that he will be out of red packs). In that case, either the user buy the red packs, sell the player and get another one or suffer some sort of disadvantage. The players that get injured in those periods are most likely selected. Either most players covering one position is taken out or a player that will be more likely be needed in the next important match will be taken out. Coincidence? If the user heals all the injured players, another 'storm' or 'half-storm' comes? Coincidence? I call this extortion.
.

[Duncton]

Nice thread.

Luck must be a part of this game because :
- It's also a part of the real football
- It's a way to make things uncertain or else the higher q team with a good manager would secure the championship (league or CH.L.) every season.

I agree that many times it takes a bigger part than it should be.

Agreed.

I like the waveform. I often feel there's a 'team form' factor involved. I have series of matches where I just can't win, then things turn around and in the second half of the league I easily beat the teams I lost to earlier. I've also noticed that in the early stages of most leagues there's a team at a top position (1-4) who, based on quality, shouldn't be there. Probably that manager is having a good streak. Ofcourse, the better your team, the less it should effect you.

I think there's a roll of the dice, but it's based on individual actions instead of the match as a whole. For example, will my better defender block the opponent's shot (60-40), if not, will it beat my weak GK (70-30). Probably there's some calculation at the start of the match based on quality, formation, ....

As for making money, I think it works like every other FB game I've played. You want to do well? You can, without spending a single coin. You want to do better? Spend some money, buy some scouts, win some titles. It becomes a problem if luck is such an important factor that being the better team and/or manager doesn't matter anymore. But it's a balancing act, you don't want the best teams to become unbeatable. Although I do believe luck is playing too big a part at the moment, it's still the best teams and/or most dedicated managers who take home most titles. Could be worse.

[nikolgiorgos]

When I first started to buy tokens for this team, I have noticed some negative things happening.

. But, when you see the same things or very similar things happening for the other team after having done the same thing (that is the act of buying tokens

you mean there is a pattern like : when one player is buying tokens, odd things happening to him ? Well, I could say that it's a strange strategy for making customers

One example: the game tempts or forces the user to buy tokens or complete offers by putting him into situations like a lot of injuries (mostly occurring close to each other so that there are more chances that he will be out of red packs)

Some time ago, I was very criticized about injuries thing but they improve it a lot.
* but still cannot see any pattern on that.
** comparing with real football clubs, injuries of TE now are less in analogy - but don't tell that to them - hahaha