Understanding role of Luck in top eleven

[nikolgiorgos]

check now what happened to my Cup opponent from previous posts, Dinamo .
He played in the Super League vs an opponent Gabon, with 94% (-30% less q) and lost


Don't know exactly his program but looks that his luck changed this time






Too bad this didn't happen in our Cup final but at least I will have much better chances for the Super Cup tomorrow

[iansyorkcityfc]

check now what happened to my Cup opponent from previous posts, Dinamo .
He played in the Super League vs an opponent Gabon, with 94% (-30% less q) and lost


Don't know exactly his program but looks that his luck changed this time






Too bad this didn't happen in our Cup final but at least I will have much better chances for the Super Cup tomorrow

and look yet again GK lowest ratings

[Grandef]

check now what happened to my Cup opponent from previous posts, Dinamo .
He played in the Super League vs an opponent Gabon, with 94% (-30% less q) and lost


Don't know exactly his program but looks that his luck changed this time



Too bad this didn't happen in our Cup final but at least I will have much better chances for the Super Cup tomorrow

Maybe his mistake was the sub at 68'.

[nikolgiorgos]

I had a CL final today and before the game I was 99% sure that I will win (I wrote that in the Greek forum).
Why ?
Because the roll dice (the waveform of post #1) would favor me.
I had +10% quality from my oppo, PARTIZAN.
PARTIZAN won in semi-finals a team with quality same as mine. Two wins.



But in the send leg, his GK was the man of the match.



And today, I had a game in FA where my oppo won and his GK was the motm.


So in today's final, even if I conceded an early goal and my players (specially the defenders) started with terrible rates, I scored 3.
(so I risked a sub to get the green - and concede a goal at last min ).



Oppo GK had a very bad rate this time (0 saves, 75% s.e. for me)


* he must have bigger avg rate than my players

[nikolgiorgos]

Ok, someone could say
wth, is this a managerial game or a slot machine ?

Well yes, the roll dice has a big role in TE. Bigger than we would like to be.
But still we can try to understand and manage in some part also the role of luck.
(Khris also have spot that trying some different method in another thread).

What I could do if for example in my asso game won and have my GK motm ?
hmm, maybe using my sub GK even if he has lower quality
or playing the game in auto/watching from another account I have
or playing a couple of friendlies with PARTIZAN (via associations) so to reset some counter or to confuse the game engine.
(this tip I gave to a friend and it worked in his final).

[EastsiderSG]

I had a CL final today and before the game I was 99% sure that I will win (I wrote that in the Greek forum).
Why ?
Because the roll dice (the waveform of post #1) would favor me.
I had +10% quality from my oppo, PARTIZAN.
PARTIZAN won in semi-finals a team with quality same as mine. Two wins.



But in the send leg, his GK was the man of the match.



And today, I had a game in FA where my oppo won and his GK was the motm.


So in today's final, even if I conceded an early goal and my players (specially the defenders) started with terrible rates, I scored 3.
(so I risked a sub to get the green - and concede a goal at last min ).



Oppo GK had a very bad rate this time (o saves, 75% s.e. for me)

Congrats Nik, next time i need to send you my opponents form and previous matchups for your predictions. Haha kidding, i know you are a busy man. But are you not affected by the wave, i assume you were winning all the way as well? or because of your higher quality, the wave form affects him more having beaten someone of similar quality to you?

[nikolgiorgos]

A +- 10% quality difference is meaningless (and you can see that when he won two times his oppo in semi-finals).
It's that the waveform, found his GK in the lower point and my GK was away from that.

next time i need to send you my opponents form and previous matchups for your predictions.

well, all those above is just food for thought, but I have enough for my team

[EastsiderSG]

A +- 10% quality difference is meaningless (and you can see that when he won two times his oppo in semi-finals).
It's that the waveform, found his GK in the lower point and my GK was away from that.



well, all those above is just food for thought, but I have enough for my team

You got me curious. Am gonna check for GK MOM and patterns in my cup and CL. I assume this waveform applies to all players but the GK is one position that will make a real difference in the match?

[nikolgiorgos]

As I said in many other posts, it's the GK who 's expressing the role dice of the game . Not the other positions.
It's the alibi of the "Just wasn't to be" effect

[Grandef]

Thanks for your analysis. But if you can predict the form of your GK, it should not be a role dice.

As I said in many other posts, it's the GK who 's expressing the role dice of the game . Not the other positions.
It's the alibi of the "Just wasn't to be" effect