Understanding role of Luck in top eleven

[funker]

and what we should learn from this nik??? that game change the luck to whoever he wants? and if it turns against you there's nothing you can do against it? is this fair?

[EastsiderSG]

Ok then, let's analyze it a bit more and maybe try to understand better the game.
Today I played the Cup final vs a team, Dinamo.
This guy bought this season 11 players from scout so had a team of 124% quality vs 120% mine.
I lost
.....................

(I had many supporters so got 59% ball p. - but only 11 shots)
with very bad rates
........................


Few hours before that, I had an easy League game.
My stats there were great and my three attackers got a 10 (Ibrahimovic also had a low rate but he scored and got a final 7.8 in the Cup).
.........................

My opponent yesterday night had a bad day at the Super League semi final
...............

So, it was his time to recover from a bad day/roll-dice and for me to fall into that ?

Who knows (but I cannot find some better explanation)

You know I was just thinking something similar. Was asking myself if I should have killed my streak before the cup final so the probability of the system issuing me a loss would be lower. I think it makes sense.

[nikolgiorgos]

and what we should learn from this nik??? that game change the luck to whoever he wants? and if it turns against you there's nothing you can do against it? is this fair?

In 80% of my games I 'm playing vs teams which don't have a present manager.
So actually I 'm playing vs the AI of the game, not some opponent.
The AI of the game is trying to beat you (at least the good and more active managers - the other don't care - lol)
Why ?
Because for two basic reasons.
- One is to make you say ok, I move on, next season I 'll be more active in auctions, maybe buy a scout or a recommended, spend more tokens to build a better team and farm more packs to improve more my team or in generals I 'll spend more time in the game (for example watching more games, make more friends-supporters).
- The second reason is that the games is trying to create challenges for you (and in depth of time, trying to get you addicted to that).
If you could read and follow some guides, spending few tokens and using the packs you are saving and getting a treble every season
then after some seasons you could say "Ok, I 've done with that. I 'm good, I won everything, there is no reason to continue playing anymore. I mastered the game and now I 'll try something else".
But you know, all those people who are moaning, they are not leaving.
It's like the casino players who are keep loosing but they return every time believing that next time they will be better or the luck will be on their side.
What I 'm trying to do is to decode the Luck part of the game, first for my mental health (so to convince myself that I 'm not a bad manager - lol)
and then try to "fool" the system if I can.
For the previous post/case for example, next time if I could have the chance (I couldn't) playing at home, I would change the time of League game, after my Cup final.
So yesterday where I had a "bad day" result, a draw in CL, the game AI wouldn't give me a second bad day game in a row

[Ludo_Mansio]

In 80% of my games I 'm playing vs teams which don't have a present manager.
So actually I 'm playing vs the AI of the game, not some opponent.
The AI of the game is trying to beat you (at least the good and more active managers - the other don't care - lol)
Why ?
Because for two basic reasons.
- One is to make you say ok, I move on, next season I 'll be more active in auctions, maybe buy a scout or a recommended, spend more tokens to build a better team and farm more packs to improve more my team or in generals I 'll spend more time in the game (for example watching more games, make more friends-supporters).
- The second reason is that the games is trying to create challenges for you (and in depth of time, trying to get you addicted to that).
If you could read and follow some guides, spending few tokens and using the packs you are saving and getting a treble every season
then after some seasons you could say "Ok, I 've done with that. I 'm good, I won everything, there is no reason to continue playing anymore. I mastered the game and now I 'll try something else".
But you know, all those people who are moaning, they are not leaving.
It's like the casino players who are keep loosing but they return every time believing that next time they will be better or the luck will be on their side.
What I 'm trying to do is to decode the Luck part of the game, first for my mental health (so to convince myself that I 'm not a bad manager - lol)
and then try to "fool" the system if I can.
For the previous post/case for example, next time if I could have the chance (I couldn't) playing at home, I would change the time of League game, after my Cup final.
So yesterday where I had a "bad day" result, a draw in CL, the game AI wouldn't give me a second bad day game in a row

Great post Nik, I agree with everything in there.

I do think there are patterns in the game that we can use to predict future results and take actions to increase our chances of winning. However, as with all chance based games we're not going to get 100% certainty over what is going to happen (or even close to 100%); there's a heavy element of the game that is random (by design).

It's hard, but would be good if we could start testing an approach. I think it should be based on deliberately losing the league game before a big Cup or CL game, i.e. tanking for one game. Then go in to your important Cup or CL game with your best team. It's something I've done previously and I think it's been successful, but it's hard to tell with such a small sample size.

[Anarşi]

In 80% of my games I 'm playing vs teams which don't have a present manager.
So actually I 'm playing vs the AI of the game, not some opponent.
The AI of the game is trying to beat you (at least the good and more active managers - the other don't care - lol)
Why ?
Because for two basic reasons.
- One is to make you say ok, I move on, next season I 'll be more active in auctions, maybe buy a scout or a recommended, spend more tokens to build a better team and farm more packs to improve more my team or in generals I 'll spend more time in the game (for example watching more games, make more friends-supporters).
- The second reason is that the games is trying to create challenges for you (and in depth of time, trying to get you addicted to that).
If you could read and follow some guides, spending few tokens and using the packs you are saving and getting a treble every season
then after some seasons you could say "Ok, I 've done with that. I 'm good, I won everything, there is no reason to continue playing anymore. I mastered the game and now I 'll try something else".
But you know, all those people who are moaning, they are not leaving.
It's like the casino players who are keep loosing but they return every time believing that next time they will be better or the luck will be on their side.
What I 'm trying to do is to decode the Luck part of the game, first for my mental health (so to convince myself that I 'm not a bad manager - lol)
and then try to "fool" the system if I can.
For the previous post/case for example, next time if I could have the chance (I couldn't) playing at home, I would change the time of League game, after my Cup final.
So yesterday where I had a "bad day" result, a draw in CL, the game AI wouldn't give me a second bad day game in a row

Well, that's exactly the point

[funker]

i can't believe what we came up to just to overcome the game engine that is totally broken... i understand what are you saying... but i think you also got my point (with fixed cup finals). so if i win all the games until the cup final (and the luck was on my side until now, as you say) should i expect to lose the cup, just because the luck is changing? and i can't do anything about that...i should just sit back and enjoy the rape ))))) that's nice, exactly what we all expect from this game ))))

the only trick that i saw working so far is to put reserves on, lower the quality and don't enter the match... let the troll happen. but with my kind of luck, i put reserves and get humiliated 7-0 )))))

[nikolgiorgos]

@ funker
there are two roads
One is to say goodbye
The other is to continue playing and try to find how things are working and you can do about it.

Now, I forgot my bad performance in the Cup final and tried for the CL .
In the first semi final, I was playing vs a weaker team with no present manager and got only a draw. A fixed/bad day game.
pics here https://forum.topeleven.com/formatio...6-guide-5.html
#50

then the next day I played an easy League game (without watching) and won with the 2nd best score of my season.
My 3 attackers got a 10 and my "luck" exhausted there - lol
because I had a very bad performance in Cup final.
Today I had another easy game at League and after yesterday's bad performance maybe I could have a (useless) super performance in my easy League game.
And then maybe again a bad performance in 2nd leg of the CL semi-final.
So I changed the time of my League match after the CL .
I played the CL game in auto (I was out with friends), opponent was present this time but I won rather easily 3-1 even if oppo GK had 4 saves.


If you see that the presence of a manager is not an advantage always, then adopt and try to find how to use it.
Another trick I use (as many other old players) is to use a second account to watch the game and intervene if needs to.
Some times helps, others not.

[Berlitz]

I think everyone thinks that if they can understand the randomness, they can improve their team and ensure that they win more. Unfortunately, from my experience, it seems like some games are just scheduled for you to lose. I have noticed that if you win big in previous cup matches and champions league games, you inevitably get trolled. The complaint here, of course, is that you become powerless to actually do anything. The opponent has one midfielder and you have 3, but that is irrelevant, the opponent still dominates the field. The opponent has no tactics, it doesn't matter, your prove tactics are ineffective. Ultimately, there is a part of randomness in the game, which isn't bad in and of itself. However, when it makes much stronger teams lose inexplicably, then you know that the game is rubbish.

[maloukees]

Maybe the system wants us (the managers) to bench sometimes our best players.....???

So the best player has the will to show to the manager he belongs in the team otherwise he not motvated because he always plays anyway.?

[IImaestroII]

Maybe the system wants us (the managers) to bench sometimes our best players.....???

So the best player has the will to show to the manager he belongs in the team otherwise he not motvated because he always plays anyway.?

Well in real football happens, sometimes managers bench them during " easy matches " . I don't know if they try to replicate this behaviour in the game, but we need data to judge this , a indicator that say " look is better to let rest this player or next match will under perform " . Maybe we understimate the rating (form like 8-8-10-7-8 ) data. But is also true that there are players that play all the matches the entire season and give their best always. Still a mystery