Understanding role of Luck in top eleven

[a.gavrilin]

Guys, don't try to find any logic in the randomness and troll of this engine. I've told that many times - the result of each season is predetermined from the first day of the season - once the draw is completed the engine already knows when and on what stage you gonna lose and no matter what opponent there will be. As a result you can easily destroy opponent much stronger than you and lose to a team 80% weaker when the stats show clearly this result shouldn't have happened.

For example this season I easily won my cup final against +15% stronger active and present manager having destroyed him 7-1. At the same time check my semi-final in the champions league - inactive opponent, not present 56% lower than me. Absolutely the same formation with same orders in both matches



my 8-0 win looks absolutely logical under the circumstances, but how the hell he could get this second win 1-0 and additionally he had 2 more counter-attacks and 1 penalty - all 3 saved by my GK

[Ludo_Mansio]

Guys, don't try to find any logic in the randomness and troll of this engine. I've told that many times - the result of each season is predetermined from the first day of the season - once the draw is completed the engine already knows when and on what stage you gonna lose and no matter what opponent there will be. As a result you can easily destroy opponent much stronger than you and lose to a team 80% weaker when the stats show clearly this result shouldn't have happened.

For example this season I easily won my cup final against +15% stronger active and present manager having destroyed him 7-1. At the same time check my semi-final in the champions league - inactive opponent, not present 56% lower than me. Absolutely the same formation with same orders in both matches



my 8-0 win looks absolutely logical under the circumstances, but how the hell he could get this second win 1-0 and additionally he had 2 more counter-attacks and 1 penalty - all 3 saved by my GK

If this were true (that everything is decided from the first day of the season) then tanking would be impossible, you'd just keep winning or losing as per the 'predetermined plan' regardless of what team you put out.

So I don't think the game goes anywhere near this far in 'fixing' things. However, there is clearly a large amount of chance involved; there's a significant factor involved in determining the outcome of games which is random. Sometimes that random element works in our favour and sometimes it works against us. Because of the way our weird human brains work we generally have a tendency to focus on the negative ways it affects us and dismiss the positive.

So we can look to figure out those parts of the game engine that we can influence, but it's an almost impossible task when that random element is thrown in.

[funker]

nik, i understand you're a moderator in here and you try to take the game's side as much as you can, but you realise how stupid your theory sounds? why on earth someone who didn't played this game so far, after he reads all comments in here, would like to start and play the game??? if you think something like rescheduling a match or watching from another account, or playing with substitutes should be the "new normal" in order to win a freakin' match, i'm sorry but for me it's too much and stupid at the same time. a new manager will continue losing without knowing that if he had watched the game from another account he actually won that match, or if he chose another time for the easier match?!?!?!?! does that make any sense? jesus christ
i've shown you so many examples of trolls and inexplicable results and most of the people still believe that it's the manager's fault somehow... now, if i lose a final against a weaker team team it's my fault because i didn't rescheduled the match before. come on, be serious, this game is dead. a month ago i posted a thread on associations discussion where i said many things about how everything is programmed there. with examples and other things. after 2 days was deleted. so i understand why people in here defend this game... just as an example: 2 seasons ago my association had almost 1800 points. and in just 2 seasons they made us lose every single weekend reaching the situation where this weekend we need 16 points to remain at platinum. and if we don't make them my theory is confirmed once again.
all these been said, i don't wanna be part in a game where you must do crazy things to win a simple match or you need the server on your side to win against some pathetic inactive associations.
so the answer to your options is simple, first road. goodbye!

[gogs67]

If this were true (that everything is decided from the first day of the season) then tanking would be impossible, you'd just keep winning or losing as per the 'predetermined plan' regardless of what team you put out.

So I don't think the game goes anywhere near this far in 'fixing' things. However, there is clearly a large amount of chance involved; there's a significant factor involved in determining the outcome of games which is random. Sometimes that random element works in our favour and sometimes it works against us. Because of the way our weird human brains work we generally have a tendency to focus on the negative ways it affects us and dismiss the positive.

So we can look to figure out those parts of the game engine that we can influence, but it's an almost impossible task when that random element is thrown in.

You're pretty much spot on with all that.
I'll repost something I put up on another thread a while back I can't be bothered doing a huge long pot on the intricacies and probabilities but every single thing we do in this game has an effect, even minutely, but all that can be negated by the chance factor in 'the dice', which some like to call 'trolling' or 'pre determined'.

"The game engine is one gigantic set of dice rolls with every single action you do influencing, however slightly, the outcome.
And because it's all down to probabilities it means that there are no 'set' results just because one team is better than the other, but the chances of the better team winning are better then them losing.
I've played thousands, and I mean thousands, tens of thousands maybe, games of backgammon over the years and the similarities of outcome to this game are quite striking when analysing that many dice rolls.
There have been 'impossible' runs of scores, and many times I've questioned the 'bad luck', but funnily enough we never question the 'good luck'.
And that is with a pair of dice with no random factors or influence.
Imagine this game with hundreds of extra small permutations, each having a 0.01% effect on the probable outcome? Over a thousand games the better team will always win the majority, but over 10 games say then these odds are drastically reduced, and in a one-to-one there's about a 20% chance of an upset unless the teams are way different.
Troll results are just the lesser probability happening, but it will happen.
Even today in the Cup, I was 4-2 down from the first leg, playing at home 1-1 with 10 mins to go and opponent got a player sent off, I scored from the free kick and then got a goal in the 89th minute and went through on away goals.
Now did I troll him, or did the dice just run favourably?"

[nikolgiorgos]

Maybe the system wants us (the managers) to bench sometimes our best players.....???
So the best player has the will to show to the manager he belongs in the team otherwise he not motvated because he always plays anyway.?

no, that's not a factor.
I had friends who won trebles using only 11-12 good players (for example @madflo and @Pricop Catalin).

But sometimes what I do when I don't want to sub any player, is to move a little one player in his box and tab the V button (so the engine can see that I change something, I 'm present and active).

[nikolgiorgos]

Guys, don't try to find any logic in the randomness and troll of this engine. I've told that many times - the result of each season is predetermined from the first day of the season - once the draw is completed the engine already knows when and on what stage you gonna lose and no matter what opponent there will be. As a result you can easily destroy opponent much stronger than you and lose to a team 80% weaker when the stats show clearly this result shouldn't have happened.

So all those years I have bought and train players after day 1, I would win my doubles and trebles without buying them.
damn

[nikolgiorgos]

You're pretty much spot on with all that.
I'll repost something I put up on another thread a while back I can't be bothered doing a huge long pot on the intricacies and probabilities but every single thing we do in this game has an effect, even minutely, but all that can be negated by the chance factor in 'the dice', which some like to call 'trolling' or 'pre determined'.
"The game engine is one gigantic set of dice rolls with every single action you do influencing, however slightly, the outcome.
And because it's all down to probabilities it means that there are no 'set' results just because one team is better than the other, but the chances of the better team winning are better then them losing.
I've played thousands, and I mean thousands, tens of thousands maybe, games of backgammon over the years and the similarities of outcome to this game are quite striking when analysing that many dice rolls.

Exactly
I have written many times this.
TE is like the backgammon game . Roll dice is critical, as skills, experience, right decisions too.
An amateur who learned the game yesterday, in one match can destroy the world master.
But he 'll never win the championship.
Unfortunately very few know and play this game to find the similarities (it's also about if you 're playing aggressively or not).

[nikolgiorgos]

@ funker

....so the answer to your options is simple, first road. goodbye!

ok, we disagree.
Nothing I can do.
Just to play my CL final tomorrow and support 32 friends who have CL/SL finals too


32 of 81 friends, some of them are also my accounts, some friends that are not active anymore, me and Mourinho so it's half of my list

[iansyorkcityfc]

Obviously the wheel of fortune turning,dice throwing backgammon playing troll monster is doing it best to disrupt me trying to win the league,why is then if your 12 points clear with 3 matches to go you never get stupid results,yet be 5 points clear with 2 games to go and you draw and 2nd place gets a chance of title by winning their game,this happens almost every season to everyone not just me
I can well recall being in 5th place one season with 5 games to go having never once been in top 4 all season only to watch all teams above either draw or lose or in the case of team at top not win a single game, gave me with combination of all the results by oppos over the 5 games the title to me
another season 2 sides way better than anyone in league run away leaders all season swapping 1/2 all season having 10 pts lead over 3rd place till yet again game AI decides no its not having that and final 5 games neither won lead dried up over 3 and 4 place teams but the very last game they had to play each other so the season boiled down really just to one game in the whole season for title and you cant say me that wasn't scripted

[nikolgiorgos]

Some times it's scripted but you must find a way to read the script and change it.
for example - let's continue with my previous story
(I added the recent days in the previous schedule)

- Yesterday I played vs may main competitor in the League. tough game, I won 0-2
- Then someone (I don't know) arranged a friendly through asso
- I played a league game vs an easy team without watching and won 10-0 with a great performance (good roll-dive, luck)
- After that I had an asso game so there was something like a reset in my previous good roll-dice/ performance
- And had again a great game in my CL final.
Ok, I was 120% and opponent 95% but still this score 7-0, is too much - specially vs a present manager.