Understanding role of Luck in top eleven

[Jean.Monico]

Doesn't happening very often but there is. I don't know if it's some hidden calculation from the game
Another scenario is that some key players come together at a "de-form" period and this affects all the team's performance.
Usually it's the GK, a MC, the AM_s or the players you use for F-K or C-K.

Alright! Another prove that there's really a hidden calculation.
I commented before that last season I lost CL half final to an asymetrical weaker team when my team was under some "strange form". I've just played against same team again, under same conditions: my team 10% stronger, same tactics, and i tried to attack through his weaker flank. The only difference is that now i feel my team is under some kind of "good form". Check the results below ;pppppp





Previously, on last season, I lost both matches: 3-2 home and 1-0 away. And the only thing that could explain it to me now is that "waveform" (which shouldn't influence that much).
PS: I believe this 7-0 is appropriate for the tactics.

[Jean.Monico]

I suggest to find some other formation, better V style or something you can attack from the flanks too (like 4-1-4-1, 4-4-1-1).
Besides the forum, I 'm also in some T11 fb groups so I can see many "super" players.
Usually are wingers.

Thanks for the tip!!! I usually change a lot my tactics, I use to spy the opponent and see how he plays, so i can counter him (from statistics you may know if he plays short pass, long pass, etc).
In general, I play 3-4-1-2 and 4-3W-2(AMCS)-1 for trying some pressure and 4-5-1V and 4-1-2N-1-2 defending own half.

Anyway, 4-1-2-1-2 works fine against 3-2-2-2-1 butterfly (or at least it should). See the numbers below:

[USARABAT]

huh ?
Attachment 86902

My understanding to the game has evolved from August to December...

( Some teams finish their seasons undefeated ... some other teams don't ) ... this is a fact , not an opinion

The result is based on mathematical equations that takes into consideration many minor and major known and unknown factors ( Luck might be one of the factors).

My evidence : http://www.iaees.org/publications/jo...er-matches.pdf
it's a 3 years old article ... now algorithm for online soccer games has probably improved.

[nikolgiorgos]

My understanding to the game has evolved from August to December...

of course, that's natural

The result is based on mathematical equations that takes into consideration many minor and major known and unknown factors

like the article you posted , but it's not only how TE or another football game using equations or algorithms for the games results
It's the general picture we must have in mind.
Let's say, hidden factors about the general strategy of the game and the behavior to some type of managers.

Example :
More and more teams are abandoned and hanging around as garbage in the TE universe.
At the old times, good active teams when met them, had victories of 10-15-18 goals.
This has been reduced drastically before some months.
Those scores become victories with 7/8/9 -0 and lately I can see a little less, like a 5-0 or 6-0 as more common result .

Another example :
Mourinho's team was unbeaten, not only for me but most of the managers.
When there was a contest for games vs Mou, they reduced the hidden quality of his team.

Another example :
A fix result when we start playing.
When you create a new team (and I made a lot this year -lol), there is a starting friendly game "how to play".
In that game, no matter what crazy thing you do, the result is 3-1.
You can see that in front of you

so, there are more scenarios that just few equations .

[USARABAT]

This is the result of changes ( small/ big improvements call it whatever you like ) that has been done in the algorithm of the game in the last couple of years ...

ex: reduce number of injuries , reduce the probability of troll results comparing to 2013-14... in addition to what've you said above.

Do you ALSO feel that there's a connection between troll results and this

https://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/Milo...Top_Eleven.php

????

[nikolgiorgos]

Interesting article but old (08/11/15).
TE isn't interesting anymore for ".churn effect".
It has been established as the king of football manager games - lol.

What I 'm more interesting the latest period of my game, is how much control we have.
How much is our choices and how much is TE decisions.
That's why I started this experiment with GKs
https://forum.topeleven.com/%CE%95%C...ix-result.html

That's why I started this thread about how many (real) troll results we have in a season
https://forum.topeleven.com/top-elev...ad-season.html

That's why I started this about bulletproof of troll results teams
https://forum.topeleven.com/top-elev...ults-team.html

and that's why after a break I made this spring, I started again with the tactic of manipulating my competitions draw, to see how far can I go.
I 'm counting 5 trebles and one double (lost in one CH.L. final), the last 6 seasons.

I could say that my real opponent is Mr troll who 's waiting for me around the corner, probably when I could not watch one of my games, to kick me in the butt - lol
So, I 'm trying to be there.
There are some others who can do better than me, for example @madflo who is also a fb friend and good supporter.
I think he 's watching every game of his and my team - lol

[nikolgiorgos]

Reading this thread about white skills
https://forum.topeleven.com/top-elev...ttributes.html

and having a chat today with some friends, I want to remind you this form of luck in TE (post #1)

Wheel of fortune
It’s also a popular lucky game and here is my theory about top eleven.
In every game there is a WoF which choose the most important factor(s) who will affect one game.
Sometimes it’s the quality but sometimes the WoF ignores the q of the teams.

What I want to say ?
Mutants or semi-mutants the last months became an issue and a reason of complaining from many TE managers.
So what is the scenario ?
One of the factors that involves in game calculations is the skills of the players.
So in some games, the Wheel of Fortune decides that individual skills don't matter (no advantage of high white skills), only the general quality of a player.
So an attacker with 110% quality and 180% white skills, is playing just as a normal 110% player and can be confront easily from a 105% "normal" defender.

Another issue we see some times (and can be explained with the WoF theory) is when a team is using a tanking formation (players in wall).
In that case, the game ignores the bad or "illegal" formation of one team, giving usually a "bad day" effect in the normal team, which leads to a draw.

Also we see lately
(https://forum.topeleven.com/top-elev...ed-trolls.html )
that a bigger chance of having more than two "bad day" games in a season (as I said here https://forum.topeleven.com/top-elev...ad-season.html ),
we can see 4 or 5 games now.

* now imagine this Wheel of fortune, where the devs of game set the pieces of different scenarios (as I mentioned above).
How about to set 4 pieces of "bad day" or "ignore formations" or "ignore players skills" instead of 2 ?

[IImaestroII]

Reading this thread about white skills
https://forum.topeleven.com/top-elev...ttributes.html

and having a chat today with some friends, I want to remind you this form of luck in TE.

Wheel of fortune
It’s also a popular lucky game and here is my theory about top eleven.
In every game there is a WoF which choose the most important factor who will affect one game.
Sometimes it’s the quality but sometimes the WoF ignores the q of the teams.

What I want to say ?
Mutants or semi-mutants the last months became an issue and a reason of complaining for many TE managers.
So what is the scenario ?
One of the factors that involves in game calculations is the skills of the players.
So in some games, the Wheel of Fortune decides that individual skills don't matter (no advantage of high white skills), only the general quality of a player.
So an attacker with 110% quality and 180% white skills, is playing just as a normal 110% player and can confront easily from a 105% "normal" defender.

Another issue we see some times (and can be explained with the WoF theory) is when a team is using a tanking formation (players in wall).
In that case, the game ignores the bad or "illegal" formation of one team, giving usually a "bad day" effect in the normal team, which leads to a draw.

Also we see lately
(https://forum.topeleven.com/top-elev...ed-trolls.html )
that a bigger chance of having more than two "bad day" games in a season (as I said here https://forum.topeleven.com/top-elev...ad-season.html ),
we can see 4 or 5 games now.

* now imagine this Wheel of fortune, where the devs of game set the pieces of different scenarios (as I mentioned above).
How about to set 4 pieces of "bad day" or "ignore formations" or "ignore players skills" instead of 2 ?

Your WoF Theory make sense

[TheWhiteKirby]

Great theory, I agree with the wav form. As there are always literal 'dips' in my season. No matter what the reason or what players I throw out my team performs not as good as before. Like barely winning 1-0 against a team thats 40% lower in quality or getting dog whopped 4-0 by someone who is at my level or slightly lower. Then next week you don't concede a goal and score on average 4-6 goals a match. It just seems like it always comes in waves and I can even calculate when it is about to happen. It has helped me win my leagues since I can anticipate certain upsets before they come. Still it is very unsatisfying to win at home 1-0 against a worse team with a last gasp 88' goal. Even worse- when you are doing well but just CANT get that last goal to seal it and then all of a sudden at 78' here comes a penalty for the other team that barely has kept up the whole game, just somehow held me to 1-0 and I end up with a cheap ass 1-1 draw. Sorry I'm venting.

[nikolgiorgos]

Great theory, I agree with the wave form

Ok then, let's analyze it a bit more and maybe try to understand better the game.
Today I played the Cup final vs a team, Dinamo.
This guy bought this season 11 players from scout so had a team of 124% quality vs 120% mine.
I lost


(I had many supporters so got 59% ball p. - but only 11 shots)
with very bad rates



Few hours before that, I had an easy League game.
My stats there were great and my three attackers got a 10 (Ibrahimovic also had a low rate but he scored and got a final 7.8 in the Cup).


My opponent yesterday night had a bad day at the Super League semi final



So, it was his time to recover from a bad day/roll-dice and for me to fall into that ?

Who knows (but I cannot find some better explanation)