Well nash, I have n doubt that your ST is great player but you know this period is really tough.
After 3 full weeks, our players carry a "hidden" fatigue" that can cause some bad performances.

I send him a friendship request at the beginning of the K.O.-round, but he didn't accept. I think, he don't want, that I'm able to analyse his lose
of course he wouldn't like it
But maybe you can analyze the games he had so far in your competition.

* also think about 4-1-4-1 if you have ML-AML & MR-AMR and later you can switch to 4-5-1V.