How to beat 4-1-1-3-1

[xa0d3kt1s]

I played with an opponent for quarter finals in cup, slightly weaker than me. He used this 4-1-1-3-1 formation, so I got my usual 4-5-1 V formation (normal mentality/wing focus/mixed passing/no counterattacks/normal pressing/soft tackling/zonal marking/offside traps). By 14' I was losing 0-2, and by the end of the first half, I was losing 0-3!
In the second half, I changed to defensive mentality, long passes, counterattacks, hard pressing and normal to hard tackling. The final result of the 1st leg was 3-3!!! 2nd leg I started with the changed tactics I mentioned before, and I won 1-2, without watching the match!
So in my conclusion:
i) selecting formations should be based on the opponent's formation (and your players of course)
ii) selecting tactics should be based on the opponent's quality (and the specific match of course).

[Tactician]

I played with an opponent for quarter finals in cup, slightly weaker than me. He used this 4-1-1-3-1 formation, so I got my usual 4-5-1 V formation (normal mentality/wing focus/mixed passing/no counterattacks/normal pressing/soft tackling/zonal marking/offside traps). By 14' I was losing 0-2, and by the end of the first half, I was losing 0-3!
In the second half, I changed to defensive mentality, long passes, counterattacks, hard pressing and normal to hard tackling. The final result of the 1st leg was 3-3!!! 2nd leg I started with the changed tactics I mentioned before, and I won 1-2, without watching the match!
So in my conclusion:
i) selecting formations should be based on the opponent's formation (and your players of course)
ii) selecting tactics should be based on the opponent's quality (and the specific match of course).

But (ii) is itself in contradiction to your case that your described above.
Against a slightly weaker team, logically the mentalily should be normal, and the fact that you are playing at home, it should even be more towards normal or even towards attacking rather than defensive.

Sometimes there is no real logic with respect to the opponent's quality and the situation itself, but more with what the engine chose as to be the correct starting orders, which might have been random.