Issues with opponents getting stronger after red cards

[Farfromtilidie]

Meanwhile, in 'real life'.........

Based on the above I worked out the following:

Game 1 - losing 1-0, 2 men sent off within first hour, lost 2-1 ~ 11.8% (being very generous here)
Game 2 - winning 3-1, man sent off within the hour, lost 3-4 = 11%
Game 3 - winning 2-1, man sent off in 80th minute, drew 2-2 = 4.8%
Game 4 - losing 2-4, man injured in 73rd minute, lost 2-6 ~ 8.1%

So: Probability(my sequence of results) = 11.8% x 11% x 4.8% x 8.1%
= 0.005%!!!

Not sure if the above was try to offer a counter argument but this would suggest that what's happened is pretty damn unrealistic! The only other matches in my season where the opposition lost a man either through sending off or injury I did win however, but both games were right at the start of the season. Did the game engine change recently?